| Demand area | Weak evidence | Medium evidence | Strong evidence | Common false positive | Best next move |
| Interviews | “That sounds interesting” or “I would use that” from a friendly contact. | The buyer describes a painful recent incident, names the current workaround, and explains why existing options fail. | The buyer asks for next steps, brings in a stakeholder, shares data, or schedules a follow-up tied to a real decision. | Interviewing people who like startups but do not own the problem or budget. | Run sharper customer discovery questions [https://dowhatmatter.com/guides/customer-discovery-questions] focused on recent behavior, not opinions. |
| Waitlists | Email signups from broad content, giveaways, or curiosity traffic. | Signups from the exact target segment with role, company type, problem, and urgency captured. | Qualified buyers ask for access, reply to onboarding questions, or accept a sales conversation before launch. | A large list with no segment quality, no problem detail, and no response when contacted. | Segment the list and test whether the highest-fit people will take a concrete next step. |
| Deposits | “I would pay” in a survey or call. | A small refundable deposit from a target customer with stated use case and timeline. | Multiple target customers pay a deposit, prepay, or sign a paid letter of intent with clear conditions. | Deposits from friends, advisors, or customers who are not representative of the target market. | Convert the commitment into a narrow delivery plan and document what must be true before building broadly. |
| Pilots | A prospect says they are open to trying it someday. | A target account agrees to a defined pilot scope, success criteria, stakeholder access, and timeline. | A paid pilot is signed, includes real data or workflow access, and has a path to renewal or expansion. | Free pilots with no executive sponsor, no success metric, and no conversion path. | Use a pilot motion like the one in how to get pilot customers [https://dowhatmatter.com/guides/how-to-get-pilot-customers]. |
| Referrals | Someone offers a general intro to “people who might like this.” | A user refers you to another person with the same problem and explains why they should care. | A buyer introduces you to a budget owner, procurement lead, team lead, or peer company with context and urgency. | Polite networking introductions that do not include the pain, trigger, or buying role. | Ask the referrer to include the problem context and the reason the buyer should respond. |
| Usage | People log in once after being invited. | Users complete the core action more than once and return without being chased. | Users rely on the product in a live workflow, invite teammates, export results, or ask for missing must-have features. | Vanity activation where users explore but do not integrate the product into a real job. | Move the right users into a focused beta path using a beta customer plan [https://dowhatmatter.com/guides/beta-customers]. |
| Procurement behavior | A prospect asks for pricing out of curiosity. | The buyer asks about pricing, security, implementation, data access, or contract requirements. | The account starts vendor review, asks for legal/security materials, identifies budget, or sets an approval process. | Procurement questions from a researcher with no sponsor or business owner attached. | Treat this as commercial validation and create a clear next-step plan in your business validation plan [https://dowhatmatter.com/guides/business-validation-plan]. |
| Fake-door tests | Clicks on a button from broad traffic. | Qualified visitors click a specific offer and answer a follow-up question about role, problem, or timeline. | Qualified visitors request access, book a call, or accept a manual concierge version after seeing the offer. | Testing a vague promise, measuring curiosity, or attracting the wrong segment. | Run a focused fake-door test [https://dowhatmatter.com/guides/fake-door-test] with a specific customer, problem, and next action. |